It seems every team I take lately can only play a half a football game before going into the toilet as wast he case last night yet again. On Saturday we had covers at the half easily on two of overall losses which can be frustrating, but we have looked at this game extensively and have backed the Cavs the last two weeks with success and I am confident yet again.
First of all you have to ignore the start Virginia had to their season. Since their bye week they have been the team they should have been by cleaning up the turnovers and playing to their strengths. Next, before you get all crazy about North Carolina and their statistics their non conference schedule has been brutally easy compared to what Virginia Scheduled. Virginia scheduled three legit top 50 teams in LA Tech, who nearly beat Texas A&M (their only loss), TCU which has been in some games against good teams, and Penn State ( a team that has surprised many this year). Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced Louisville (over rated as we saw last week), East Carolina (ranked 85th), and arguably the worst team in the nation in Idaho (120th). We will go over some key stats for their similar opponents that give Virginia in my opinion a distinct advantage on Thursday night.
Before I do that we must talk about the emotional advantage Virginia has. First they have revenge on their minds from losing to North Carolina last year, they are in the national spotlight on a Thursday night at home, and they are alive for a bowl game. North Carolina is suspended from any post season action and are really just playing for bragging rights. We have seen a lot of inconsistencies from the Tarheels this year and I think that will continue on the road tonight where they have not played their best.
Turnovers and penalties. Virginia has cleaned them up going +1 in the last three games combined while North Carolina is -.5 on the road. One thing Virginia has not cleaned up are the penalties where they are ranked 104th, but UNC is ranked 105th. Both teams should be able to move the ball on the opposing defense with their running and passing game. North CArolina got shredded after having a bye against Georgia Tech allowing 68 points and 5.7 ypc. Although the stats do not show it Virginia has the RB to continue that trend in Kevin Parks and Perry Jones. Many defenses have keyed on those two players this season because the offense has not been able to pass, but Michael Rocco has been on fire lately. If he stays on fire you can forget about the dual QB system they have been running this year. I don't see any signs that point to him stopping as North Carolina's pass defense on the road has been suspect allowing 67% conversions 8.1 yards per attempts, while Virginia is allowing 55.6% conversions and 6.2 yards per attempt and keeping everything in front of them forcing teams to have convert on third down.
Third downs are such a key play in any game and even more so when two even teams face off in a critical game and Virginia just has a distinct advantage so far this season. Overall both teams are similar on offense ranked 71st and 58th for UNC, but UNC converts just 39% on the road to Virginia's 47% at home. 3rd down defense is Virginia's forte ranked 14th in the nation allowing 31% conversions and 29% at home while UNC has allowed 41% and 50% over their last three games ranking 66th, but what is even more interesting is what both these teams did in their games against 5 common opponents. Both teams faced 5 common opponents and both played 3 of those 5 on the road. The results are Virginia just out playing UNC on third down. Virginia converted 38.27% of their third downs in those games while North Carolina converted 34.67%. Virginia held opponents to 24.19% on third down while North Carolina allowed 45.56%. I give a huge advantage to Virginia on third down where this ball game should be decided. North Carolina is 1-7 ats int heir last 8 visits to Virginia and 3-11 ATS in the last 14 overall meetings.
